In-depth interpretation! Panoramic analysis of China's lithium battery industry industrial chain in

Lithium-ion batteries, referred to as lithium batteries, are representative of modern high-performance batteries and are mainly used in new energy electric vehicles. Among the upstream raw materials, the cathode material is the most critical raw material for lithium batteries, which directly determines the safety performance of the battery and whether the battery can be large-scale. The shipment of cathode materials tends to rise, and the price of some materials tends to rise;

Lithium battery production continues to rise, the production capacity of various companies is stable, and the price of lithium batteries continues to fall, which is expected to fall to US$100/kWh. The continuous decline in the price of lithium-ion batteries will promote the reduction of the driving cost of new energy vehicles, which is conducive to the development of new energy vehicles.

Lithium-ion battery, referred to as lithium battery, is a kind of rechargeable battery, which mainly relies on the movement of lithium ions between the positive electrode and the negative electrode to work. It is a representative of modern high-performance batteries.

According to the "National Economic Industry Classification" (2019 revised edition) formulated by the National Bureau of Statistics, my country classifies the manufacturing of lithium-ion batteries under the battery manufacturing (C384) in the manufacturing of electrical machinery and equipment (Code 38 of the National Bureau of Statistics) Manufacturing (3841) refers to the manufacture of batteries using lithium ion intercalation compounds as cathode materials.

Industry chain: Cathode materials are key materials

The raw materials of lithium batteries mainly include positive and negative materials, electrolytes, electrode substrates, separators and can materials. Among them, the cathode material is the most critical raw material for lithium batteries, which directly determines the safety performance of the battery and whether the battery can be enlarged. It is also the material with the highest proportion of lithium battery cost, accounting for about 40% of the cost of lithium battery cell materials. Currently, the cathode materials are mainly lithium manganese oxide and lithium iron phosphate, lithium cobalt oxide and lithium cobalt oxide, and the anode materials are mainly graphite.

The advantages of lithium batteries make them an ideal secondary energy source for human development in the 21st century. In the past 5 years, lithium batteries have developed rapidly in the consumer goods field. Among them, notebooks and mobile phones are the two major application areas of lithium batteries. In the long run, with the country's support for the new energy industry, electric vehicles will gradually become the largest demand industry for lithium batteries.

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Upstream: Shipments of cathode materials tend to rise

Lithium battery cathode materials include ternary cathode materials, lithium iron phosphate materials, lithium cobalt oxide materials, lithium manganese oxide materials, etc. Among them, ternary cathode materials are the main materials, which account for 46% of shipments in 2020; followed by iron phosphate Lithium materials will account for 25% of shipments in 2020.

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According to the research data of the Advanced Industry Research Institute (GGII), China’s lithium battery ternary cathode material shipments in 2020 will be 236,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 23%. The increase is mainly driven by the increase in domestic and foreign market demand. The growth rate of materials is higher than that of lithium batteries. Secondly, shipments of lithium manganate continued to grow, reaching 66,000 tons in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 16%.

3.jpg During the Spring Festival of 2021, due to the large number of lithium manganese oxide parking and maintenance companies, the operating rate has dropped, and the operating rate of other positive electrodes has remained stable. According to Longzhong Information, most of the cathode material production of many domestic cathode manufacturers are in high-level operation or normal operation; among them, the annual production capacity of the cathode material ternary precursor product of Zhongwei New Material Co., Ltd. has reached 140,000 tons. Overall, the supply situation Shows a trend of positive and good development.

4.jpg According to the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, from February 2020 to February 2021, the national domestically-made power-type cathode material lithium iron phosphate monthly highest average price fluctuated upward as a whole, especially from the end of 2020 to February 2021. , The price rose rapidly. On February 19, 2021, the highest market price of cathode material lithium iron phosphate reached 46,000 yuan/ton, and the highest market price of domestic small power lithium manganate reached 36,000 yuan/ton.

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Midstream: Prices continue to fall

In recent years, the demand for lithium batteries for 3C products has increased steadily, and with the gradual expansion of the market scale of new energy vehicles and the expansion of demand for energy storage batteries, the production scale of lithium batteries in my country has been expanding year by year. From 2015 to 2020, the output of my country's lithium battery continues to grow. In 2020, the output of lithium-ion batteries in my country will reach 18.845 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.87%.

6.jpg In recent years, my country’s total shipments of lithium batteries have increased year by year, mainly due to the growth in shipments of new energy vehicles and power batteries. Data show that China’s total shipments of lithium batteries will be 158.5GWh in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%. The growth rate has declined for the first time in five years, but overall, the growth rate is still relatively high.

7.jpg With the gradual improvement of the lithium battery industry chain, the price of lithium-ion battery packs continues to develop in the direction people expected. From 2013 to 2020, the global average price of lithium-ion battery packs has continued to decline, from US$668/kWh in 2013 to US$137/kWh in 2020, a 79% drop in 8 years. BNEF predicts that by 2023, the industry average price will be close to US$100/kWh.

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Downstream: batteries account for 40-50% of the cost of new energy vehicles

In the downstream industry of lithium batteries, my country's lithium batteries are widely used in many downstream fields such as mobile phones, notebook computers, electric bicycles, electric vehicles, power tools, and digital cameras. With the expansion of the scale of my country's new energy vehicles, it is expected that my country's electric vehicles will further increase the demand for lithium-ion batteries in the future.

According to GGII data, the global lithium-ion battery product application is mainly used in electric vehicles, accounting for 46.7%; followed by other electronic products, accounting for 20.2%.

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Batteries are an important factor in the development of new energy vehicles, and new energy vehicle motors and motor controllers are the drive systems of new energy vehicles. The three most important parts of the cost structure of new energy vehicles are batteries, motors, and electronic controls. The cost of batteries accounts for about 40-50% of the cost of new energy vehicles.

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On December 3, 2019, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)". The "Plan" stated that by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles and new vehicles will account for about 25% of the total sales of new energy vehicles. The sales accounted for 30%, and highly automated driving intelligent networked vehicles realized commercial applications in limited areas and specific scenarios.

The planning and market guidance of new energy vehicles will increase the demand for lithium-ion batteries. The continuous decline in the price of lithium-ion batteries will drive down the driving costs of new energy vehicles. The lithium-ion battery industry and the new energy vehicle industry will promote each other and develop together.